Archive for the 'Local Market Conditions' Category
Forsyth Getting “Avenues” Shopping to Complement New Housing
categories: Local Market Conditions, Stuff I like to talk about
Usually I write solely about North Fulton County here. In this case, though, I want to go just up GA-400 to Exit 13 in Forsyth County. Heck, the area between HWY 141 and GA-400 might as well be part of Fulton County.Â
In fact, you can find some housing options there that you can’t find in Fulton County, namely new construction with a basement from around $500k.
But the reason I want to drive up to Exit 13 today is to shop. Actually, now that I think about it, I don’t shop - or at least when I do, it is usually over the Internet. Yes, I’m embarrassed to say that some of the clothes in my closet are older than my third grader. I can still wear at least the shirts …
For those of you who still like the experience of shopping in a retail store, The Avenue of Forsyth, developed by Cousins Properties, has just broken ground at GA-400 and Exit 13 (HWY 141). Residents of South Forsyth and North Fulton will no longer have to drive to The Avenue East Cobb, the closest of the other four “The Avenue” open-air shopping centers, which offer higher-end, up-scale shopping.
This not only means less driving to shop for local residents, but more convenience in Georgia’s fasting growing community. It is an acknowledgement by corporate retailers and developers that Forsyth county is no longer home to only mobile homes and Lake Lanier.  In the past, a big shopping outing was a trip to the GA-400 outlet malls. With The Avenue, Forsyth County will be on the retail map.
For home owners in the area, more amenities means higher home values. So do more schools: Forsyth County has opened three new schools in 2006 and four in 2007. HWY 141 is being widened to four lanes from the Forsyth-Fulton county line all the way to GA-400. Home Depot and Target have already set up shop on HWY 141. GA-400 was just widened to six lanes to McFarland Road (Exit 12), which is the first Forsyth exit.
Certainly there are issues to manage with growth and Forsyth County currently has a moratorium on residential rezoning in an effort to take a breath from all the development activity.
But for those communities already under way, sales are good. For instance, Peachtree Residential has twenty-three communities in progress in the Metro Area and their 200-lot Provence development in South Forsyth will account for 25% of sales in 2007. South Forsyth is conveniently located to Alpharetta, where most of the jobs are, and the taxes are a bit less.  Plus there are more new construction options and now there will be some shopping to go with that new house.Â
I’ll take two, please. See you at The Avenues when I finally outgrow those shirts still in my closet!
Â
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently No Comments »
Buckhead has the Restaurants; North Fulton has the Grocery Stores
categories: Local Market Conditions, Stuff I like to talk about
Living in Alpharetta is nice because you’re close enough to the good restaurants in Buckhead for nice meals on special occasions but also near a growing collection of really great grocery stores.
I’m not talking about Kroger and or even the new Publix at Birmingham Crossroads, of course. It’s much better than that. To the West, North Fulton is host to
the newest Trader Joe’s on HWY 92 at King Road. To the East is a monster Whole Foods on State Bridge Road at Medlock Bridge. In between is a Fresh Market in Newtown and Harry’s Farmers Market off HWY 9.
The other day, my family ventured into the new Whole Foods. I don’t know whether to call it a grocery store or a restaurant because they have some many “food stations” where you can eat, not to mention the salad bar and hot bar. We all wound up having dinner there.
When I first graduated college, I lived in Palo Alto for a time and Whole Foods had just opened its first store in California there. I used to ride my bike there and buy fish for stir fry - heck, everyone road their bike, it was California! The store, back then, was nice enough, but it was small and quaint. The
store in Alpharetta is the Taj Mahal of grocery stores.
Harry’s Farmers Market was purchased by Whole Foods a couple of years ago, and while the store underwent a facelift and reorganization, it retained a lot of its original market warehouse feel. It still has a huge fish counter, blue crabs in the box during season and reindeer in the parking lot for Christmas.Â
Harry’s (and its brother store the DeKalb Farmers Market) were founded as international food markets and my European father-in-law who now lives state-side disappears for long periods of time to Harry’s on every trip to Alpharetta. He always returns with great selections of wine, cheese, pate, breads, honey, jam and, of course, chocolate. Anyone addicted to the Truffled Walnuts like I am?
From a housing perspective, if you want to live somewhere where you can get good eats, North Fulton is the place. I had a client once tell me that the way she picked where she wanted to live is by studying where Jersey Mike’s and Fresh Market opened new stores. She said those companies had a stated plan of looking for high-end demographics and she used them as her leading indicator.
It is certainly not a scientific method, but relying on the research of large corporate chains can’t be all wrong because they are selecting North Fulton over and over again to locate their stores. And in the end, even if the grocery chains get it wrong - which they haven’t - at least we will eat well and that is really want matters!
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Martha is Coming; Martha is Coming!
categories: Local Market Conditions
Martha Stewart is coming to Georgia. Actually, she is already here, south of Atlanta in Fairburn.
Martha and KB Homes have formed a partnership combining KB’s national home building experience and her design and decorating experience. They are starting their second development in GA.
Their first development here has apparently been well received at Hampton Oaks in Fairburn, south of Atlanta.
Now they are moving north to Woodstock and planning a development called Wynchase off HWY 92 and Neese Road, not too far from “downtown” Woodstock. This location is close to the I-575 corridor, but also makes communiting to Roswell and Alpharetta feasible.
Wynchase will offer six different floorplans ranging from 2,700 to 3,800 square feet and 3-6 bedrooms. (Hampton Oaks offered 17 plans from 1,900 to 4,600 sq ft.)
The floorplans are KB’s, but Martha comes in
with designing both the elevations, how the exterior of the house looks from the street, and the interiors. The team has developed three elevations, or styles, based upon Martha’s own homes. The Katonah is based on Stewart’s Katonah, NY home and is the “traditional” design.
The Lily Pond elevation is based on Stewart’s Long Island beach cottage and has shake single siding accents and brighter colors.
The Skylands elevation is the contemporary design with stacked stone accents, craftsman windows and is modeled after Stewart’s stone house in Maine.
On the interior, Martha has had her hand in appointing the colors and molding, wainscoting, cabinets, flooring and othe design aspects. I believe that homeowners can select which upgrades to put in the home. I’m not sure how this is drastically different from what other builders allow homeowners to do when selecting options in their design centers. It is just in this case, all your options have been determined by Stewart and mesh with the other design elements of the house.
Finally, there is the landscaping, one of my favorite areas and the area that is so often skimped on by builders. It was Stewart’s gardening expertise that first appealed to me many years ago. When buying one of the KB-Stewart homes, you can select a landscaping package designed by Stewart’s personal gardener.
It is not clear yet what the pricing will be in Wnychase. I suspect that it will be similar to Hampton Oaks, which offered 3-4 bedroom homes below $300,000. At that price, and with the allure of Stewart’s design, I suspect that these homes will be hotter than Martha’s Best Buttermilk Pancakes. Not only does the KB-Stewart team have an eye on design; they also seem to have a good eye on the demographics and house market in our area.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently No Comments »
Bargain Hunting in Milton High End Homes
categories: Local Market Conditions, New Construction
The original site of Kings Ridge Christian School was on Freemanville Road between Phillips Rd and the entrance to the gated section of White Columns. Ultimately, that site was rejected, which is a whole other story, and the school is currently under construction at the corner of Cogburn Road and Bethany Bend.
Relocating the school was possible because of a land swap that involved a builder named Richard Wernick, who has also developed Triple Crown around the corner on Birmingham Highway.
Wernick now owns the land on Freemanville Road and in their last zoning hurrah, the Fulton Board of Commissioners approved the development of a 77 home subdivision there. This subdivision will back up to Wood Road, which is one of the gravel roads that retains the “horse farm feel” that Milton is known for and many would like to retain. Some residents wanted three acre zoning for the lots that abutted Wood Road so that they would fit in better with the existing land use; however, the Commission approved one-acre lots and there will not be access to the development from Wood Rd.
So, there are going to be some more million dollar homes built in Milton. The question I ask and the question that all my friends and clients ask me is: Who is buying all these million dollar homes? New developments are popping up everywhere: Crabapple Estates, Evergrace, Crabapple Brook, North Valley, Lake Haven, Hayfield, Arcaro to name just a few. This is in addition to the continued development going on in Six Hills, Triple Crown, The Manor. Everywhere you turn there is a million dollar home.
I went to the data to find out what is selling and I don’t think you’d be surprise. But it will make you wonder why developers continue breaking ground.
Since September 1st, only ten homes have sold in Milton between $750k and $1M. As of today, there are 109 homes on the market in that price range.
Since September 1st, nine home have sold for over a million dollars in Milton. There are 143 active in the FMLS system. The market picture for the year looks like this:
| Price Range | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | YTD as of today |
| $1 Million Plus | ||||
| Sold | 7 | 17 | 14 | 41 |
| New Listings | 4 | 41 | 43 | 121 |
| $750,000-$1M | ||||
| Sold | 7 | 19 | 24 | 56 |
| New Listings | 3 | 22 | 47 | 93 |
At the top end of the market, it is tough sledding if you are a seller. If you are a buyer, well that is another story. I know of at least one amazing estate home on a lake with 4 acres and probably 7,000 finished square feet with an unfinished basement that recently sold for 65% of the original list price.
While Milton is a very desirable place to live, there just aren’t that many million dollar buyers in this market. Land prices have quadrupled in the last few years and that is why the prices are where they are, but clearly the builders must slow down. Perhaps this is why Steve Casey cleared the land and put in the roads for a new development on Taylor Road, but has yet to build a house.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
Alpharetta Housing Reflects Demographics Trends
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Local Market Conditions
We all know that we are getting older and that as a population more of us are getting older. In Alpharetta, that is being reflected in the types of new housing construction.
According to the Alpharetta Community Development Department, most of Alpharetta has been “built out.” Any new construction is in-fill, commercial or rehab. That is, developers tear down and rebuild. What they’re rebuilding with is predominantly condos, townhomes and some apartments.
Case in point, drive down Rucker Road from Crabapple to Alpharetta and you’ll pass The Reserve at Crabapple, The Enclave at Crabapple, Sweetwater and the Seasons . All of these communities cater to buyers looking for ranch styles and small yards. Take a left on Roswell Street and you’ll find one of Peachtree Residential’s ongoing projects, Victoria Square.
There are 68 condos priced at $400+. If the Alpharetta City Center development ultimately happens, there will be another 150 condos mere blocks from there targeted at empty nesters as well as people who haven’t made their nest yet, but want to live near their job in Alpharetta.
Venture a bit further east on Old Milton Parkway and Peachtree Residential has another development called Myers Park near Northview High School. There are 73 townhomes
ranging from 2,900 to 3,600 sq feet in a gated community and priced starting around $400k.
Many people from the surrounding country club communities of St. Ives, St. Marlo and Country Club of the South are transitioning to townhomes and appreciate the luxury and fine living that a development like Myers Park provides.
The big picture is that Alpharetta is the “job hub” and is becoming more geared to higher density, condo and townhouse development, which leaves the surrounding areas of Milton and Johns Creek and parts of South Forsyth as “bedroom communities” for the destination that Alpharetta is and continues to become.
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Florida - Georgia Game is More than just Football; It is Real Estate too.
categories: Local Market Conditions
With the Florida - Georgia game coming up next Saturday in Jacksonville, I thought it was an appropriate time to write about a trend, no, more of a tidal wave, that
I’ve noticed. Gators (and Seminoles and Hurricanes and any other mascot you can think of) might want to win the football game, but they all want to live in Georgia. Everyone wants to leave Florida!
At first, you might think that it is because of the hurricanes even though there haven’t been any this year so far, knock on wood.
Then you might think that it is the huge increase in homeowner’s hazard insurance that is the result of past hurricanes. Homeowners are regularly reporting doubling of insurance premiums, which means a couple of extra thousand dollars a year.
But that is not all of it. Many long time Floridians report a “lifestyle decline,” particularly in south Florida. I’ve been told that, “Florida just isn’t the same as it was 15-20 years ago.” It is hard to debate that.
The real capper though, is that the Save our Homes property tax relief bill passed back in 1992 has come home to roost. The bill effectively froze or greatly reduced property tax increases on homes where the owner has a homestead exemption (which basically means that it was a primary residence.) Now fifteen years later people are hostages in their own homes because to sell them would mean the new owner would be subject to a re-assessment on the home and a HUGE increase in taxes. In some cases the tax bill would go from around $3400 a year to over $10,000 a year. No kidding. $10,000.
The real catch is that current residents are subject to the law, too. Even if you move down the street, you’ll trigger the reassessment and price yourself right out of your neighborhood.
Faced with this dilemma and the other issues around hurricanes, insurance and quality of life, if a Floridian wants to move, they probably need/want to move out of state. That explains why every week, I’ve been speaking to at least 5-10 people looking to move to Atlanta. They want to stay in the south, but they want out of Florida.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
Property Tax Bills are Out
categories: Local Market Conditions
 I’ve always maintained that if income taxes were due the Friday before the November general election that we would have a totally different government in this country - at all levels - than we do today. In fact, if I could make only one change to our governmental process, that would be it.
As it is, tax day and election day, I mean revenue day and expense day, are about as disconnected as they can be on the calendar. My cynical side says: Politicians want to give you every opportunity to forget how much you paid in April before you vote in November.
It’s a little different with property taxes. Each county is different in Georgia, but most have mailed out there property tax bills for 2006. In Fulton County, we received them a few weeks ago and they are due on October 15. Most property owners are escrowing their property taxes with their mortgage company, so we all pay a little bit each month towards taxes. It’s not like we’re writing $4,000 checks three weeks before an election. That wouldn’t be the American Way.
I get a lot of questions from prospective buyers in this area regarding property taxes. In summary, our property tax burden is pretty darn light compared to most other major metropolitan areas in the US, particularly the Northeast. But it is really hard to compare and contrast property tax rates across states because local governments use so many different ways of raising revenues: Some municipalities have high sales taxes because they are heavily touristed and they want to “export the tax� to the non-residents. Some local governments don’t have a property tax at all. You really have to look at your overall tax burden (sales, property, fee, income) when comparing one place to another.
What I can tell you is that this year I’ve seen the smallest increase in my own property tax in the last six years. My property tax only increased $33 over last year…my assessed value didn’t increase for the first time. Now, maybe this is because the entire Fulton County Tax Assessors office was fired about six months ago, but that is material for another post.
The general rule of thumb that I use when estimating property tax is that it will be about 1% of the sales price, give or take.
My wife has been reading some of the posts about the Atlanta area on http://www.city-data.com/forum/georgia/ and mentions to me that people are interested in what our local taxes are, so I compiled a little data to compare local cities in the North Fulton and adjacent counties. Roughly speaking, it is about $37 per $1000 of assessed value to live in this area. That is significantly cheaper than Atlanta and just slightly higher than our neighbors to the west in Woodstock and Marietta and to the east in Lawrenceville and Duluth. I haven’t been able to break down what accounts for that marginal difference, but I suspect that it is in the school related part of the property tax. (If anyone knows, please post a comment.)
Some wise cracker on city-data.com will usually chime in and note how much cheaper Forsyth County (Cumming) is than North Fulton and that they would never live in Alpharetta or Roswell because of the taxes. It is absolutely true that taxes are less in Forsyth; The City of Cumming doesn’t even have a property tax.
My clients always ask me how much cheaper Forsyth is than Fulton and the answer is about $16/$1000 of assessed value. Doing the math, that would be about a $1000 per year difference on a $400,000 house. But when you figure the differences in the services that you receive in the two places, maybe it is worth it. For instance, I can’t name a single park in Forsyth County. I know that there must be one somewhere … Plus there are only three high schools in the WHOLE county. There are six in North Fulton alone.
Just remember all this when you vote in November!
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently No Comments »
Bubble-ology
categories: Local Market Conditions
I’ve received some requests from readers to know about local Alpharetta/North Fulton market conditions relative to the Real Estate Bubble that everyone reads about and hears on the news.
Contrary to what may be happening in other markets, the sky is not falling in North Fulton. However, things have certainly “softened” a bit over a year or so ago. All the realtors like to say: “It’s a shifting market.”
I pulled some statistics for North Fulton county to check for myself. The data show that indeed: Inventory on the market is increasing. A year ago, we had a little over four months of inventory; in August this year we had almost seven months of inventory. Six months of inventory is commonly referred to as a “neutral” market; more is a buyer’s market, less is a seller’s.
Another indicator is the Days on Market stat, which moved up from about 45 to about 57.
So the net of it is that it is taking a little longer to sell in this market. The good point, however, is that the average sales price still continues to increase. From August 05 to August 06, the average sales price has increased $25k, to over $350,000.
Now all this needs to be taken with a grain of salt - please only draw general conclusions from this data. North Fulton is a big area and real estate is local to the level of the neighborhoods sometimes. Plus, there is a lot of new construction in some areas - at high price points - that is sitting on the market. The results of this analysis would certainly be different by price range.
And finally, there is the phenomenon that during a market shift like this, the properties that get left behind are the “marginal properties.” These are the ones that a year or two ago would have sold in a decent amount of time, but now are just cluttering the market. They make a good home look all the much better when it comes on the market.
I maintain, that today, in North Fulton, you can still sell a home in short order if you prepare it for sale, market it correctly and price it right. That is where I come in (;-> shamless plug). I’ve had multiple offer situations in this market, so it can be done.
For buyers, the message is that North Fulton values continue to increase. I believe they are only going to continue to increase - and that the formation of Johns Creek and Milton is only going to help. Buy in now, if you can - and in this environment, depending on your price range, you stand more of a chance of finding that motivated sellers we all seek.
For more charts and graphs on local market conditions, check these out:
Accepted Offers / Median Price
New Listings vs. Accepted Offers
Months of Sales Inventory vs. Avg Days on Market
Sold Listings / Median Price
Active Listings vs. Sold Listings
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