Archive for the 'Local Market Conditions' Category
Interview with Alpharetta City Councilman DC Aiken
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Local Information, Local Market Conditions
I had the opportunity to sit down with Alpharetta City Councilman DC Aiken and ask him about the city, how it is faring in the current economy, what projects are going on, what’s happining with Prospect Park and Westside Parkway and his take on the likleyhood of Milton County.
Part 1
Part 2
DC Aiken is an Alpharetta City Councilman and VP for SunTrust: www.suntrustmortgage.com/dcaiken
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently 2 Comments »
Alpharetta Real Estate Market Stats: It’s local
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Johns Creek Real Estate, Local Market Conditions, Milton Real Estate, Roswell Real Estate, Schools
I just wanted to put a few numbers together to illustrate that we have to temper what we hear on the news about the housing market. Lately a lot of people have been pointing out to me that the number of homes sold for January 2o10 has gone down, unexpectedly, from units sold in December 2009. It’s true, January wasn’t as good a month in our industry as a lot of people had anticipated. However, just like other markets, we shouldn’t pay too close attention to gyrations that happen over a short period of time, but rather look at trends year-over-year.
The local part
In all of North Fulton (which includes Alpharetta, Milton, Johns Creek and Roswell), across all price ranges there were 202 homes sold in December 2009. That number a month later in January 2010 was 109 or 54% less than the previous month. But looking at the year-over-year figures, the number for January of this year was up 25% over the January 2009 figure of 87 sales.
It doesn’t mean we’ve arrived, but the gloom and doom on the national news isn’t necessarily the case either.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently No Comments »
North Fulton Home Sales: Market Update
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Crabapple, Local Market Conditions, Milton Real Estate, Roswell Real Estate
Here Comes The Sun
It’s been a long cold lonely winter… And there have been a few news reports recently stating that home sales declined from November to December last year and this means the recovery won’t happen or the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away. The reason is kind of obvious, with the first-time home buyer tax credit originally expiring at the end of November there was a rush by home buyers to get in under the wire. So news reporters keeps driving this negative point in some effort to perpetuate some scary outlook for the economy.
To be sure, jobs are still an issue and looks like they will be for some time, but the real estate market here in Atlanta is still trending in a positive direction, just like it was in November. For instance, the number of single family homes sold in Metro Atlanta for Dec 09′ has increased over Dec 08′ and for condos/townhomes that increase is more than 20%. So, I’ve put together some numbers for North Fulton specifically…
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Single Family Homes Sold |
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Sold |
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Sold |
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Dec-08 |
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Dec-09 |
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Increase |
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Alpharetta / Milton / Johns Creek |
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121 |
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150 |
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23.97% |
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Roswell |
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52 |
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71 |
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36.54% |
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Duluth* |
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54 |
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57 |
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5.56% |
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All of N. Fulton |
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164 |
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200 |
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21.95% |
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*includes some sales in Gwinnett |
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We are outpacing the rest of metro Atlanta and inventory levels are down to levels not seen since 2005. Foreclosures are still an issue despite a high level of competition among buyers for bank owned property. But take note of those stale subdivisions because builders like Ashton Woods and John Wieland are on a buying spree, and why wouldn’t they be with half priced lots out there in subdivisions like Breamridge and Crabapple Crossroads. There is pent-up demand for reasonably priced new construction, which buyers tend to gravitate to. Barring any significant economic hiccups we’ll hear the sounds of hammers and saws again in Crabapple and the surrounding area. It’s already happening in Forsyth County… and those homes are selling briskly.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently No Comments »
Alpharetta Real Estate for 2010: What will the future hold?
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Crabapple, Foreclosures, Local Market Conditions, Metro Atlanta Statistics, Milton Real Estate, New Construction
It’s a question buyers and sellers ask almost every day, especially in a market like this, but at the end of the year people look forward to that new beginning. For a brief period of time it’s like the slate gets wiped clean on January 1st. Anything is possible and we look for signs of what may come for Alpharetta real estate. I always say, in order to know where you’re going it helps to know where you’ve been. Looking back over 2009 might not be a pretty picture, depending on your perspective, but it’s telling.
Ouch : Sales declined through most of the year and Sellers really took it on the chin. And builders took it even harder. It’s tough to compete though when almost 40% of all homes being sold in the first 2 quarters were foreclosures or short sales. For those that could take less and get out, they didn’t like it but felt like they made it out. For others, they had to stay put or take a loss. Never before have I seen so many homes available to rent, which was a good alternative for many sellers out there that had to do something.
Cha-Ching : While Sellers were getting beat up, Buyers where cashing in. For those in a position to buy, the real estate deals were plenty and the banks had their shelves stocked with goods. First-time home buyers and renters were in the envious position of not needing to sell and having plenty to choose from. Still, competition was stiff for foreclosures. Banks started the year pricing at the old market value but later realized that aggressive list prices brought multiple offers fast and sales prices that were over list. They were still good deals but the time on market was reduced significantly. The tax credit did it’s job and continues to do so until it expires next year. Inventory levels were reduced quite a bit and now we are seeing an increase in homes sold year-over-year. Comparing November 2009 to November 2008, the number of homes sold in Metro Atlanta are up 52% and for North Fulton, they are up 82% .
Bye Bye: No, all the deals aren’t gone but they are slowly fading away. The expanded tax credit will continue to help but I’m seeing the mindset has changed with both buyers and sellers. At the beginning of the year Sellers were still amazed that a home reduced by $100K could still be on the market and Buyers were amazed it hadn’t been reduced more. Now sales prices have come down further, Sellers except much of the current pricing as market value and Buyers are not willing to spend months looking for that spectacular deal because they are slowly disappearing.
Looking Forward : We will see a higher than normal level of activity for the first 4 months while the tax credits are still in effect. This will help continue to reduce inventory levels and we will continue to see the number of home sold year-over-year go up. Sales prices will flatten out for most, and begin to increase in small pockets of demand and sought-after communities later in the year. The 400 corridor is well positioned with great schools and businesses that are still moving employees into the area.
New construction starts, which showed up in the 4th quarter of 2009 will widen through 2010 due to an abundance of developed lots at bargain prices. Forsyth County will lead the pack here, mainly because builders will be able to buy lots and build in lower price ranges to a greater degree than in North Fulton, but we’ll see that in North Fulton as well. Knight Construction is selling out in the Cumming community of Union Station, which is no surprise as first-time buyers typically gravitate towards new construction when it’s available. I suspect new homes in Crabapple and Milton will have the most opportunities.
Foreclosures will be present for the next couple of years (no surprise) but banks will continue to roll them out slowly keeping competition for them fairly high. Also, thanks to the banks, Short Sales will remain an excruciatingly painful and slow process (thank you Bank of America). Interest rates are anybody’s guess but until unemployment comes down to a respectable 7 or 8% then they will have to remain reasonably low.
How do I know it will all turn out this way? I have inside information that "It is decidedly so".
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently No Comments »
Why now is the time to purchase a home in Crabapple
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Crabapple, Local Market Conditions, Milton Real Estate, Schools
I know, your saying, "but there are all these empty lots and builders aren’t building". That’s true, but this area has been a sought-after location for home buyers for a long time and it continues to be, even in this market. The community is highly involved in managing area development and keeping the look and feel that currently exists. So, here are….
5 Reasons why NOW is a good time to purchase a home in Crabapple:
1. Prices have dropped about 30% from thier peak
Now, I’m speaking specifically about the new construction, which includes Crabapple Crossroads , Crabapple Crossing and Crabapple Station . The surrounding communities in the resale market have not dropped that much. From the peak of the market, prices for Metro Atlanta have come down about 23% on average. Of course some areas suffered more and some less, Alpharetta home prices are only down around 16%. And, for the other reasons outlined below, we’ll see home values in Crabapple come up over the coming couple of years and I believe they will eventually surpass the peak market values (over time).
2. Crabapple has some of the best schools in North Fulton
The three schools that Crabapple feeds, Crabapple Crossing Elementary, Northwestern Middle and Milton High School, are in demand for good reason. Crabapple Crossing ranks 15th among elementary Schools in the state of Georgia. Northwestern Middle School raised thier SAT scores to 1722 out of a possible 2400 and Milton High School is in the top 500 in the nation , ranked at 311.
3. Crabapple is a solid destination for dining
As I sit here in Element coffee shop , using their free wireless and writing this post, I’m looking at a group of women in a personal training class at Anytime Fitness next door and I’m thinking about how my wife told me she met a friend at the Olde Blind Dog Pub at 7:30 on a Wednesday night they were packed and on a wait. And Sip’s new Tapas and Wine bar has been full since they opened a few weeks ago. Having been there on a couple of occasions, I know first hand how good their food is and why they are staying so busy. So, add in Little Azios, Milton’s , Cans, and you have a great dining destination community.
4. Crabapple is a great Walkable Community
So, the three new communities in Crabapple that surround the shops and restaurants are Crabapple Crossroads, Crabapple Station and Crabapple Crossing. All are within a mile of the antique shops, restaurants and stores. It’s one of the only walkable communities in North Fulton.
5. Crabapple has been proposed as the city center for Milton
Milton is only 3 years old (next month) and while it’s residents take an active roll in the community / government and embrace the small-town rural feel, Milton lacks a city center that will give it real location and city destination. A local developer, J.T. Adams has proposed a Milton Town Center which, if completed, will further enhance Crabapple’s draw and support the recovery of property values.
Do you live in Crabapple? Are you thinking of moving to the area? Let us know what you think about what’s there, what’s needed and if a City Center is a good idea.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently 5 Comments »
Where is the Real Estate market headed?
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Crabapple, First time home buyers, Foreclosures, Local Market Conditions, Metro Atlanta Statistics, Milton Real Estate
It’s hard for homeowners and buyers to know where the market is headed because there are so many conflicting reports out there about what is happening. Depending on where and from whom you get your information things can look like they are improving or getting far worse.
Nationally
The NAR reportsthat there is a big rebound in existing home sales nationally, with first-time homebuyers driving much of those numbers. Their report says: “Existing-home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops–jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.”
To be sure, first-time homebuyers have been on the hunt with the impending expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. They have been driving sales numbers in the $250,000 and below price ranges. An extension and potential expansion of that tax credit would help broaden those numbers and that would be a good thing.
Metro Atlanta
However, Steve Palm from Smartnumbers says “Closings for all single family had a large 16.8% year-to-year decline for September”. He goes on to say that he doesn’t think it is an issue with the recent flooding or some lenders being taken over by the FED but it’s more of a liquidity issue-there are no loans available for some buyers.
The good news is that inventory levels are down quite far, with 47,000 single family homes available for all of metro Atlanta. This is on par with inventory level in January of 2006. Another good bit of news is that the percentage of sales that are foreclosures is dropping, as you can see in the following chart:
North Fulton Real Estate
So, what is the story for us here in North Fulton, specifically Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Milton and Roswell? Well, for the cities listed above, here are the units sold and average sales prices over the past 5 Septembers:
| Sep-05 | Sep-06 | Sep-07 | Sep-08 | Sep-09 | |
| # sold | 352 | 205 | 218 | 179 | 195 |
| avg. SP | $401,161 | $400,030 | $409,002 | $414,729 | $359,328 |
The average sales price for our area is only down around 12% - 13% over the past 5 years which is far less than the metro Atlanta average of 20%. I would describe our local market status as stabilized with signs of improvement. It’s kind of like a “statistical recovery”. The numbers are pointing in the right direction but nobody really feels like it’s improving yet.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently No Comments »
Increase The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and Extend it to Everyone
categories: First time home buyers, Local Market Conditions, Stuff I like to talk about
I know, the title of this post sounds completely self-serving. You’re saying “Of course a Realtor wants the tax credit extended, oh, and even increased in size”. Here me out though.
Like it or not, both administrations passed stimulus bills to the combined tune of about 1 trillion dollars. There is no shortage of opinions on whether or not the bills were good ideas. My argument is if we are going to do something (and I think we should) then where should that money be spent. So far, according to ProPublica, a site that tracts stimulus spending, the government has spent about 19% of the most recent $792 billion dollar bill.
Economic Dollars Spent as of This Week:
- $111 billion spent
- $146 billion in process
- $324 billion left to spend
- $63 billion in tax cuts issued
- $150 billion in tax cuts remaining
Now, I’m not saying that because it’s there we should spend it all but I agree with many who are of the opinion that what has been spent so far isn’t delivering the intended effect. I think the question we should be asking is “what is the best use of those stimulus dollars?”
First, I believe that reducing home inventories will help the housing market recover which is right up there with job creation in helping the economy recover. Secondly, I don’t believe in letting the markets do their thing, on their own, with the idea that how it all falls out will be better. That line of thinking is right up there with the people who don’t believe they should vaccinate their kids. If you’re sick, you go to the doctor. If you have the flu, take an antibiotic. We wouldn’t be good stewards of our economy if we didn’t try to lessen the impact or speed the recovery of the economic crisis.
Why do I think an expanded home buyer tax credit will have a more profound impact?
Let’s start with the current first time home buyer tax credit that is set to expire on December 1st. It’s had a firm impact and has worked in spurring home purchases, in the lower price ranges mostly. These buyers did not just suddenly become capable of purchasing a home. But why haven’t they taken advantage of deals that have been available over the past 12 months? There are many buyers in a position to buy but are concerned about where their market is heading. Or they have perceptions that they’re going to get an already aggressively priced foreclosure for another 50% off - they get mired in searching for an unrealistic “deal”. The tax credit incented them to move forward now.
Buyers in other price ranges will respond to that same incentive that first-time home buyers did. They’ll want to take advantage of a tax credit opportunity while it’s there. Those home purchases will allow sellers to move and buy. It will spur purchases of durable goods like refrigerators, washers, TV’s etc. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that extending the program would create more than 347,000 jobs, generate over $16 billion in wages and over $12 billion in business income.
It’s a topic that can initiate a lot of arguments but I’m curious to hear what you think.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently 1 Comment »
Alpharetta & Cumming Home Sales Turning The Corner
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Local Market Conditions
If you are like most of America right now, you’re looking for some good information to balance out the driving hammer of bad news from the media. And if you are like me, you’re a realist. While you know it is a challenging market, there are some good things happening out there. But sometimes we need more than a pep-talk, we need real data. I think this information very motivational and it contains real numbers.
We all know that the number of homes sold has been going down every year and the feeling is that we are nearing the bottom or in the bottom right now. We also know that often you can only identify the bottom of the market when you look back-so timing the market is difficult at best. But the chart below is a strong indication that the bottom may have just occurred here in OUR market.
What I chose to look at were only residential resale numbers for the month of March over the past three years and then, what is already sold or under contract to sell for April 2009. As you can see, it has been flat from March 2008 to March 2009 for both the Alpharetta / Milton as well as Cumming. Additionally, we already have more homes planned to close in April than March-and we’re only a week into the month.
If you’re curious how our foreclousre numbers compare to the national average of 40%, out of the sales numbers in the chart above, 12% of the March 2009 numbers in Alpharetta / Milton were foreclosures or short-sale properties. For Cumming, 20% of the sales in March 2009 were foreclosures.
We aren’t out of the woods yet but coupled with the possibility of the $15,000 home buyer tax credit getting passed in Georgia, home sellers should see improvement in the coming months and home buyers-take advantage of this market while it is here.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently 3 Comments »
