Archive for the 'Forsyth' Category
Will Market Improvements Spell Trouble for Existing Home Sellers?
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Foreclosures, Forsyth, Milton Real Estate, New Construction
It doesn’t sound like it makes sense, right? How can things get better but spell trouble for home sellers? Or maybe you’re reading this and asking "How can you even say they are getting better?". Before I get into any potential problems, let me start with the point about things getting better. Things are trending in the right direction, albeit at a very slow pace, but signs of recovery are there.
Signs of Improvement
Current inventory levels are down approximately 40% from the 2007 market peak. Even with the flow of foreclosures, there has been capacity to consume those distressed properties. In the first Qtr. of 2009 distressed sales made up nearly 38% of all home sales in Metro Atlanta. That number is now around 25%. Most sellers on the market today either need to sell or have the equity necessary to sell at current market value. Property owners who would normally be on the market just to "see what they could get" or toying with moving, generally speaking, aren’t out there.
The fourth Qtr. of 2009 was the first quarterly increase in units sold over the past 2 years, showing a 14% increase over the previous year. And we are seeing an increase in the RELO client. This data in anecdotal but our team alone has worked on several deals over the past 4 weeks involving RELO clients. Companies are moving their employees and the properties we’ve been looking at are disappearing fairly quickly.
So Where’s The Problem? - Mortgage Delinquencies and New Construction
Rising mortgage delinquencies will ensure that we will have foreclosures and short sales in our market for at least the next 2 - 3 years. As you can see in the chart to the right {click chart to enlarge}, courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com .
It appears that delinquencies may have dropped slightly from their peak, but unless some of the programs being implemented by the government and banks actually help homeowners and slow that process, then it could possibly begin rising again.
When the market tanked, new construction fell off a cliff, and we’ve had literally no new construction for the past 2 years. But now builders are grabbing developed lots at great discounts, new home starts are showing up and the sounds of hammers can be heard in more than a few communities. Most of these locations are in Forsyth County but over the summer we’ll see construction begin in some stalled communities throughout Alpharetta and Milton.
Buyers tend to gravitate towards new construction when available. That coupled with the fact that buyers are also looking for great deals (foreclosures) I think some pressure could be felt by the normal equity owner looking to move-up, down or relocate, due to the increased competition with new construction…along with foreclosures. That said, I think any pressure will be short-lived. As the economy and the housing market continues to improve, competition will increase for sought-after communities and school districts, ultimately putting the re-seller back into a stronger position. Of course the product they have to offer can always set them apart, which is why we are seeing well priced homes in good condition and locations sell quickly despite the current market.
Am I on target or off base? Let me know what you think….
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently 5 Comments »
The BIG Number
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Forsyth, The Big Number
$17,000,000
The price reduction on the47,000 sq. ft. Le Reve Estate in Cumming, GA. Reduced from $45,000,000 to $28,000,000.
Posted by Bob Strader | Currently No Comments »
Would You Like a $700,000 House for About Half Price? | South Forsyth Executive Homes Hit Bargain Basement Prices
Vickery, South Forsyth - Here’s the deal, and you hear it only here. The economy is cinching the rope around builder’s necks. I know an incredibly well respected builder who has built literally hundreds of million dollar homes in the North Atlanta suburbs and not to sound like a car advertisement, says: "Everything Must Go."
You can choose one of these four nearly $700,000 homes, each four sides brick, five bedrooms, four full baths with three car garages and full unfinished basements on half acre lots for the low low price of only $370,000 .
I know I sound like a cheesy radio car ad, but deals like this only come around once in a long while. If you are a bargain hunter - and whose not in this market - here’s your bargain. If this is a buyer’s market, and it is, then buy!
The homes are located near Vickery in South Forsyth. This is a growing part of the county with a new high school, local amenities including The Avenues shopping on 141 and GA-400.
At $370,000 it is hard to make a mistake, particularly with mortgages around 5% or less. This is my version of a local economic stimulus package.
Call me and tell me which of these four homes you like best before they are gone…and they will be gone at this price, but only your and I know that price.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 3 Comments »
$432k House Raffle in Forsyth for $5 a Ticket | Creative Way to Sell a House
Forsyth - Of all the posts I’ve written, this post last October about a house auction in Annapolis has made my phone ring more than any. It never ceases to amaze me when I see that Maryland area code come across my caller id … I know what the call is for sure.
To date they have sold 22,517 fifty-dollar tickets for that auction, with only 27,000 total needed to pull it off. They are confident that they are going to sell the required amount and have scheduled the auction for January 23rd.
In my initial post, I had hypothesized about doing an auction here in Alpharetta - but it was only a hyphothetical because I got a bunch of inquires about how to buy a ticket for the “Milton House.” My thought was to do an auction for $100 a ticket and sell 7,000 of them. I thought selling 27,000 tickets was a bit of a stretch, but it looks like I was wrong.
Fast forward three months and now there is an auction for a $432,000 house in Forsyth County north of Cumming at 7996 Bethel Road. The house acutally has a Gainesville address, as it is between Cumming and Gainesville.
Here’s the deal, though: FIVE DOLLAR TICKETS. Can I call this the $5 house then? You can buy individual tickets or group of 5, 15 or 30.
Here is the link to the website to get more information and purchase tickets: RafflingMyHouse.com. The raffle is scheduled for March 31, 2009. The house is pictured above and is 4 BR and 4.5 Baths.
There seems to always be a charity aspect to the house raffle. In this case, it is a local organization call Seed Sowers, whose mission has remained for the past 10 years, to assist single parents, the handicap, and the elderly with various needs including housing.
In a time of economic turmoil, the house raffle is a logical solution. On one hand, Seed Sowers has an opportunity to increase its revenues to support the growing demand of its mission and the homeowner has an opportunity to indirectly sell their house by donating it to the charity. The donation includes the equity in the home and 10% of all proceeds from tickets sales in excess of the homes fair market value.
Just another example of more creative thinking in a market that demands it. Tickets went on sale January 1st. Let’s see how many they sell.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 14 Comments »
Vickery Foreclosure Presents New Opportunities in Forsyth County
categories: Buyers, Commercial Activity, Foreclosures, Forsyth, Luxury Homes
CUMMING - A lot of people - mostly notably those getting foreclosed on - might think that foreclosure is the worst thing that could happen. Actually, in this case, it might be the best.
It has been a while coming, but Wachovia finally started foreclosure proceedings against Hedgewood Properties and the Vickery development on Post Road.
This has been rumored for a while now as numerous other Hedgewood properties have recently been foreclosed upon, but the foreclosure on Vickery was finally made public yesterday with the legal notice in the Forsyth News .
The legal notice goes on for page after page; I’m not patient enough to count how many separate parcels are included in the action. However, the newspaper reported that nineteen parcels were included and upwards of $44 million. At Vickery, that includes both residential and commercial parcels as far as I understand it.
So what does this mean to current residents of Vickery and to people who might like to take advantage of this foreclosure opportunity to buy into Vickery?
I actually think that this is a good thing for current Vickery residents because for the recent past the real estate market has been frozen in Vickery: People couldn’t sell and people couldn’t buy. Why? Because most of the new construction has not been completed and the bank wouldn’t lend any more to complete it. If someone whated to purchase, they be purchasing a partially completed house and have to get a construction loan to do it.
Plus, I heard that even it the developer, Hedgewood, did sell a property, the bank wouldn’t let them keep any of the profit because of arrears on the loans, so there was really no incentive for Hedgewood to strike any deals.
On the commercial site - remember, Vickery is a mixed-use community with residential, commerical and the YMCA (which is unaffected by the way) - there have apparently been tenants wanting to sign leases, but they can’t get minor build out issues handled so they have not signed leases.
It is rumored that a new lender will step in and negotiate new financing before this foreclosure reaches the steps of the courthouse. I’ll tell you what, though: If it does reach the steps, you can meet my wife there because she has always wanted to live in Vickery!
A new lender who will sprinkle some money on Vickery to get the project unstuck would be the best outcome for current and future property owners. Vickery may have been a project ahead of its time in terms of just not having the critical mass of population to support the commercial, for instance. Wachovia and Hedgewood seem to be having to pay the price for that.
But Vickery is a great product (unique architecture, community concept, open spaces, narrow streets and alleys) and not something that is readily available in this geographic market. My expectation is that other people recognize this too and that someone buys it at a discount and takes it across the finish line.
For now, the foreclosure is a difficult patch for Vickery to get through, but that is what the market looks like from the bottom, today.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 3 Comments »
$45 Million Estate For Sale in Cumming | You Can’t Pick Your Neighbors Though
categories: Buyers, Forsyth, Luxury Homes, Stuff I like to talk about
Listed at $45 million dollars, the Le Reve Estate in 
Cumming is one of the 10th most expensive residential properties in the U.S. What do you get for $45M? How about this:
- Private golf course (and indoor virtual golf)
- 2-lane bowling alley
- Full arcade and restaurant
- Home theatre (seating at least 25) replicated after The Fox Theater
- Model train room
- Horse stables and riding ring
- Carriage house
-
82 rooms; 10 bathrooms; 9 half bathrooms - 12-car garage
- 2 elevators
- 28 foot ceilings
- 47,000 square feet
- 72 fenced and gated acres
I could go on; there is no shortage of benefits of this property to highlight.
But even with all that, check out the property next door, which is also for sale, by the way. This is hilarious; talk about a contrast. You can probably get a much better price for it.
Just goes to shows, you can pick your friends, but you can’t pick your neighbors even if you are spending $45 million. Don’t worry though, Le Reve’s iron fence, hi-tech security system and 65 security cameras will have you sleeping easy at night.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
Prices Rise and Fall in Forsyth County at the Same Time | 13% Decrease on One Side, 3% Increase on The Other Side
categories: Buyers, Forsyth, Local Market Conditions
CUMMING GA - I had an innocuous question yesterday from an out-of-town buyer looking to relocate to the Alpharetta area.
The Question
He actually prefers to be in south Forsyth, just over the county line and asked what prices have done in Forsyth County in that past year.
The Canned Answer
I’ve had a working number in my head that I share with clients: Prices are down about 5-6% along the GA-400 Corridor (Alpharetta, Roswell, Cumming, etc) over the past year. There was an analysis in a local magazine this month showing prices are down 6.8% from May 2007 through May 2008, so I thought I was close to being accurate.
The analysis done by the magazine was for the zip codes 30004 (Alpharetta and Milton), 30005 (Alpharetta), 30024 (Johns Creek, but also Suwanee and large section of Gwinnett County), 30040 (Southwestern Forsyth County - Cumming), 30041 (Southeastern Forsyth County - Cumming), 30097 (Johns Creek but also Duluth all the way to I-85 on the east), 30075 (Roswell West) and 30076 (Roswell East). The 30022 zip code, which covers a large part of Alpharetta and Roswell East, was mysteriously left of of the analysis.
The Problem With The Canned Answer
This just goes to show how hard it is to do meaningful analysis on a geographic are like North Fulton. Even though we obviously know where it is, it is so hard to define in the real estate data: Zip codes cross municipal and county boundaries and city names don’t work because so much of the area was unincorporated until recently.
Past sale data won’t have a good city name and even current listings are labeled as Alpharetta when in fact they may be in Milton or Johns Creek. The Postal Service doesn’t help any because all they really care about is the zip code; there is a difference between your postal mailing address and your actual municipal address.
Therefore, I always do my analysis based on FMLS Area Number. The FMLS divides the city into ninety defined, geographic areas . Areas 13 and 14 are North Fulton. Area 13 is west of GA-400; Area 14 is east of 400.
So I turned my sites to Forsyth County to confirm the data to answer my client’s question. I was curious if the 6% decrease held up for Forsyth. What I found proves that even at an eight zip code analysis level like was done by the local magazine can be too large. Real estate is indeed local, even down to an elementary school district.
Forsyth has three FMLS areas, Areas 222 and 223 west of GA-400 and Area 221 east. In actuality, Forsyth needs to have four areas, one for each quadrant because the north and south parts of the county are so different.
The Reconsidered Answer
That probably has something to do with the results of my analysis, which showed that Areas 221 and 223 have lost 13% in average sales price over the past year . That is double what the magazine was reporting for the area, which infers that some other areas in the area are doing significantly better than reported.
Here is the kicker, though. Area 222, that part of Forsyth County west of GA-400 and south of Highway 20, actually has seen a 3% INCREASE in average sales price over the past year. I didn’t have time to breakdown the numbers by new construction and resales, but I still found it interesting, if not amazing, that there is an area realizing positive sales price growth in this market.
My suspicion is that the same is true of South Forsyth on the east side of GA-400 but it is not as easy to analyze in the data because there is not an FMLS area just for the southeastern part of the county.
If I had to venture a guess, though, I’d say that the northern part of the county is dragging down the average sales price for the southern part, so don’t let the 13% sales price decrease fool you in south Forsyth east of GA-400. I’m not saying they have positive growth there, or that it is not a buyer’s market, but statistics can be misleading.
To see a full chart of the last year’s average sales data for Forsyth County, CLICK HERE .
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
Market Indicator: Bowen Homes Sells 12 in 14 days
categories: Buyers, Forsyth, Local Market Conditions
With so much doom and gloom in the real estate market, I thought that I’d share some market news that I got from none other source than my barber. Hey, barbers know what is going on around town.
Bowen Family Homes has sold 12 new homes in their Stonehaven subdivision in South Forsyth in the last two weeks.
The neighborhood will ultimately have about 500 homes in the $200’s and has a 10-acre recreation area. There are currently about 300 homes built.
I suspect that a lot of these buyers are first time buyers taking advantage of low interest rates and not having to sell a home before they buy.
Just wanted to let you know that it is not all doom and gloom in the Alpharetta (and Cumming) real estate market.
Now, if you need the best haircut in Alpharetta, go to Gino and Jacksons at Hwy 9 and Windward Parkway next to La Parrilla.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
