Archive for the 'Alpharetta Real Estate' Category
Spin Doctors Give Atlanta Real Estate Data a Good Yank
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Local Market Conditions
ALPHARETTA -I believe in the power of positive thinking, but the problem with saying that everything is "great", "rosy" or "fantastic" is that everyone knows it’s not true - particularly when it comes to real estate these days.
The only prophecy that’s fulfilled from being a "glass half full all the time" person is that you lose your credibility. Therefore, while I hope for the best and don’t dwell on the negative, I also don’t believe most of what I hear or read in the news - or at least I test it when possible.
Such is the case recently with Atlanta’s real estate data. Of course, you have the national media telling one horror story after another and then you have realtors and industry spin doctors weaving tales of how the market is turning around and we’ve hit the bottom.
The local MLS produces a set of monthly statistical reports that is accompanied by a letter analyzing the results. This is usually pretty dry reading, but October’s letter is a little more interesting. It states:
"After 18 consecutive monthly year-to-year percentage closing declines for all single family homes, we will have an increase. September 2008 had a 4.1% decline from September 2007, but after lags are reported, we will be positive."
What this is saying is that every month for the past year and a half, the number of real estate transactions closed in that month was less than the same month the previous year. And the good news: That downward trend is over, at least when you look at the entire metro Atlanta area. The exact numbers are below; don’t forget that even though the total is still negative 4%, there are "lags" which are late updates to the data that purportedly will bring the total into positive territory.
Atlanta Real Estate Transactions Sept 07 to Sept 08
| Detached | Attached | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 711 | 3887 | 4598 |
| 2008 | 635 | 3774 | 4409 |
| Difference | -10.7% | -2.9% | -4.1% |
The letter goes on to say that the reason for September’s rebound was because (1) September 2007 was no great shakes so besting it in 2008 is nothing to get excited about and (2) the average single family sales price for September 2008 was the lowest since November 2001. Prices in September 2008 were 16.9% LOWER than in September 2007 . Sounds like to me that that is the real news here, not that the number of transactions might be recovering.
Fortified with the good news about the increasing number of transactions, I started for the mountain top to proclaim it to the home buying and selling masses. But wait…real estate is local and what goes for Atlanta doesn’t necessarily go for Alpharetta. Plus, with the election cycle recently completed, my BS meter is highly calibrated. I was feeling wobbly from the effects of the spin doctor. Antidote: real, hard data for North Fulton. What did I find? Well, I know why my retirement savings are suffering.
I just looked at detached single family residences (no townhomes) and in North Fulton County, transactions were down 18% in September 2008 from September 2007. What’s worse is that I went ahead and looked at October while I was at it and I shouldn’t have done that. What did I say earlier about the glass being half full? Transactions in October 2008 were 40% fewer, yes FORTY PERCENT, than in October 2007. If I said that 60% of the number of people who purchased in October last year purchased this year, would that sound any better?
The MLS analysis stated that the 17% drop in average sales price was partially accountable for the increase in transactions. Duh. That is economics 101: When prices go down people buy more of them. While that may be true of Atlanta as a whole, that hasn’t held true for Alpharetta, Roswell, Milton and Johns Creek, the four cities that comprise North Fulton.
Average sales price is only marginally down year over year, but nothing near the 17% drop for Atlanta, and in fact was up in October. See the chart below for the complete picture. That may help explain why transactions have dropped so precipitously. Again, economics 101: buyers must think the prices are still high and therefore not buying as much.
The downward sloping blue line indicates that the dearth of transactions has been getting worse over time. Notice that things actually looked like they were improving a bit late this year, but then nosedived again in October when there were only 125 closed transactions (of homes listed in the MLS) in all of North Fulton. That is the lowest one month total (by two, there were only 127 in January 2008) by a pretty large margin of any month since November 2005 and probably further back, but that is as far back as my data went.
Then notice the relatively flat orange line on the chart. That indicates that average sales price has stayed about what it was the previous year at that time - and notice the spike at the end of this year counterbalanced by the drop in number of transactions. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Oh, sorry, that’s physics and we are talking about economics. You get the point, though.
So here’s my spin: Congratulations to those sellers who have been able to sell because prices are actually holding fairly well given the economic climate. Your property must have stood out from the crowd for some reason. For the rest of you, you know the answer. Gobble. Gobble.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently No Comments »
Cornucopia of Alpharetta Fall Real Estate News
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Announcements, Foreclosures, Local Market Conditions, Lots, Luxury Homes, Photography
ALPHARETTA - Nothing symbolizes November any better than the cornucopia and the turkey. And since I am "theme challenged" today, I thought that I’d just throw all the random thoughts that are bouncing around in my head into one big cornucopia of a post. So forgive the scatter-brainedness of this post, here’s my cornucopia of thoughts:
Wild Turkey Spotted in Windward Parking Lot
Since it is November, let’s start with the turkey. Believe it or not, I actually saw a real, live wild turkey walking across the parking lot near Windward Parkway and Northpoint Parkway the other day. Don’t believe me? I have proof!
I grabbed my camera before she pranced away. Here she is as she goes in front of my car; she was headed east towards the dining room tables of Windward!
The Price of Education
Fulton County Schools reportedly paid $318,000 per acre for the 64-acre site for a new high school site on Cogburn Road. This land was purchased from Chatham home builders who had purchased it a year or so ago for a residential development. At that time, Chatham paid a reported $204,000 per acre and since that time had done site planning and grading and installed streets and gutters, all of which will likely be torn out when a new school is built. Apparently the school board is still exploring ways to gain direct access to Highway 9 from the new site.
New Amenities Underway at Crooked Creek
Crooked Creek obtained financing for its amenity renovation. I’m told that progress is commencing on the $4M project that will include two new pools, eleven tennis courts, a playground and clubhouse. No further word on whether Crooked Creek will be able to gate the neighborhood. Would love to hear from some Crooked Creek residents on this one. Please comment to this post if you would.
Two Home Starts in Lake Haven
Two custom homes are currently in the process of being built in Lake Haven. One should be finished by the end of the year. These are the first two and are being built by Southern Home Properties , the same company who built Lochstone Manor , on Doris Road.
There are 58 one and two-acre lots remaining. Reportedly the commencement of construction has brought about a lot of renewed activity in Lake Haven, although no further purchases yet. All in good time… Lake Haven has the potential to be a very special place to live.
White Columns Foreclosure Sells
OK, not THAT foreclosure , that I’ve been talking about incessantly. The other one. 715 Scarlet Oak Trail, is the big brick house in the cul-de-sac with a finished basement that included two full baths and a second kitchen. It was listed at $515,000, reduced to $489,000 and sold for $469,000 in 133 days. That is a ton of heated square footage for the dollar and the house required only minimal repairs.
Foreclosure Sales Statistics
The National Association of Realtors has reported in August that nationally 35-40% of all homes sales are foreclosure properties. I read elsewhere that 42% of all September sales were foreclosures. NPR reported this week that we can expect 5-7 million more foreclosures ! Certainly I can’t dispute the widespread interest in foreclosures; I’m getting a ton of inquires myself regarding foreclosures in Alpharetta.
That got me to thinking: What percentage of our sales in North Fulton since January 1, 2008 have been foreclosures? A quick scrub of the data shows that 11% of sales were technically foreclosures - owned by the lender. It also means that they were properly identified in FMLS as foreclosure properties. This does not include short sales or "pre-foreclosures" as they are called.
So, if 11% of sales are foreclosures (and I would argue that this is the most competitive part of the market), what percentage of active listings are identified as foreclosures? The envelop please: 4% in North Fulton (Alpharetta, Roswell, Milton and Johns Creek). This says that a foreclosure is about three times more likely to sell than a non-foreclosure.
Good Bye Reading Tree
I’m sorry that downtown Alpharetta was not able to support the Reading Tree bookstore , which recently closed. It lasted about a year and a half. It is tough being a retail business in downtown Alpharetta; the area seems better suited for small service-based businesses that don’t require retail traffic.
The good news if you are a bibliophile, though, is that the library referendum passed so we will someday get a better library in Alpharetta, one that befits a city of our quality. Just make sure you continue to oppose the political trophy called the central downtown Atlanta library and keep the funds flowing out to the suburbs where the readers are.
One Last Salute to Fall Colors in Milton
I had posted a nice Fall photograph the other day and thought I’d publish just one more if you’ll indulge me. I’m a sucker for the Chamber of Commerce picture in the Fall. The light and color is just too good to not get out of the car and take the picture.
The last one was in a residential area of Crabapple. This one is a little further north in Milton off Benthany Bend road. The area is decidely more rural. I hope this captures the flavor a little bit. I sometimes post my pictures to Google Earth Panaramio, too, so as to not bore you too much here.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 4 Comments »
Hidden Milton Cemetery & Hidden Milton Foreclosure | Happy Halloween
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Foreclosures, Luxury Homes, Stuff I like to talk about
MILTON - If you’re a long time reader, you know that I love Halloween and honor it with an annual post about a hidden cemetery .
Last year , I probably went overboard and told you about four such cemeteries, making my job a bit harder this year. However, I’m confident that I have a doozie for you this year - and still have saved material for next year.
You’d never see this graveyard from the street, as it sits back in the woods, the only indication being a curb cut to allow driveway access. Of course, I don’t know why you’d need driveway access because it doesn’t look like anyone has been buried there for over 100 years. The curb cut is probably just because some government regulation requires access to cemeteries. Perhaps it is even still designated as active.
Let me give you the name of the cemetery, maybe that will help: Walker Pioneer Cemetery. Nope, not even anything in Google or Wikipedia for this topic. Wow, we must be talking really obscure here. And the word "pioneer" makes it sound so old, which it is. There really may be actual pioneers buried there.
Let me give you the latitude and longitude. Certainly that will do it: 34° 07′ 18.12" N latitude and 84° 20′ 34.10" W longitude. To make it easier on you, here is the Google Earth kmz file: .
Looking on Google Earth, there is too much tree cover, I know. I wish they’d take these images in the winter so that you can see the actual ground instead of the tops of the trees.
Here is your final hint: The only likelihood you have of being familiar with this cemetery is if you live in Triple Crown, particularly in one of the first four houses on the right. That is a dead give away…pun intended!
You see, the Walker Pioneer Cemetery abuts the back of those homes and has been a sanctuary to about 25 souls (and countless birds and other wildlife) for so long that the headstones are barely decipherable. In fact, all but two of the headstones are simple rocks. (Someone has gone in an identified most of the graves with white stakes.) If it weren’t for the headstones of James Walker and his wife, you might not even notice that it was a grave site, except for the subtle washboarding of the ground. Cool! Spooky cool!
If living near these restful souls in this peaceful setting sounds attractive to you, you’re in luck. There are two homes. The second house on the right, 14009 Triple Crown Drive, is on the market for $775,000, having been reduced from its initial list price of $875,000.
Also, the fifth house on the right, 14021 Triple Crown Drive is for sale for $719,000. This is a foreclosure, even though the MLS lists it as "corporate owned." Four sides brick, 5 BR, B BA, 3-car garage and most importantly, an acre+ lot with an easy walk through the woods to visit Pvt Walker and friends on nights like tonight.
You other nearby opportunity would be a little bit of a walk down Triple Crown Court. This house is also a foreclosure and the cheapest in Triple Crown currently. This house was originally listed at $909,000 pre foreclosure in July of 2007. It has been an official foreclosure now for about 10 months and was just reduced this month to $699,900k. It also has 5 BR, 5 BA, full basement and is across the street from the lake.
So, back to the cemetery: The tax records identify the parcel as one acre with an owner simply stated as "Cemetery." Beware, tonight the 25 ghostly owners of Walker Pioneer are likely to reappear and make there presence felt!
Happy Halloween. May the real estate market not spook you.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
$365,000 Price Reduction on Alpharetta Foreclosure | Hopewell Plantation
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Foreclosures
ALPHARETTA - That is NOT a typo. Yes, this house in Hopewell Plantation was reduced this week from $699K to $335K.
Yes, it is a foreclosure. Yes, it is sold "as-is" but you can still get an inspection and a due diligence period to ease any concerns you have about what you are buying - and back out within the due diligence period if you are not comfortable with the inspection results. Yes, it is a heck of a deal.
The conservative after repair value of this 5,200 square foot house in Hopewell Plantation is $600,000.
So, what’s the catch, you ask? Well, there was a water leak that apparently went undetected for a while resulting in moisture and black mold in the basement. It is a problem that needs remediation, but not a show stopper as far as the house is concern, in my opinion. The sheetrock ceilings and wall and carpet all need removal and replacing in the basement.
Additionally, the hardwood floors have been seriously warped by the water in a number of places and need to be replaced. Besides those two major issues, there are a lot of other positives about this house starting with the fact that it has recently been completely re-bricked. (It used to be hardcoat stucco.) It also has a new roof with architectural shingles and new six-inch gutters.
The master bath has been updated, the kitchen is large with a good layout opening onto a nice family room.
The master is on the main and there are three secondary bedrooms upstairs each good sized with there own bathrooms. Additionally, there is a bonus room upstairs that could be a media room, play room or converted into a fourth upstairs bedroom.
As mentioned, the basement is finished, but if you buy this house you will be unfinishing about half of it to remedy the water damage. The remainder is is good shape, with lots of daylight, a nicely finished full bathroom, another bedroom and entertainment area.
The lot is big (almost 2 acres), deep, private and has a fairly easy slope in it away from the house. None of the trees are too close to the house. There is a huge, new deck on the back of the house with both a covered, vaulted portion and an uncovered portion. Below is a concrete patio accessible from the basement.
Using round numbers, there is $250,000 of equity in this house. If you spend $100,000 you are still way below market value. I guess that explains why there were six cars in the driveway last night looking at the house. When a deal presents itself you must be prepared to act - and my suspicion is that this one, like the one two weeks ago in Providence Plantation , will go for more than list price. It will still be a good deal for some lucky new Alpharetta resident.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently No Comments »
Crabapple Update - Victoria Secret Models Working as Sales Agents
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Crabapple, New Construction, Townhomes
CRABAPPLE - Watching a community like Crabapple transform seems to take so long that it is hard to maintain the excitement. There is very little glitz and glamor, just small real estate signs, public notices and construction, construction and more construction.
Plus, there is lots of starting and stopping, particularly in a market like this one. Characters come and go. For a story that takes so long to unfold, it is hard to hold our attention.
So, enter the Victoria Secret models. That got your attention refocused on Crabapple - or at least refocused, didn’t it?
Okay, there really aren’t any Victoria Secret models in Crabapple. I’m so sorry, really; I wish there were. Then we’d sell some real estate!
But now that I have your attention, let me get you caught up on some of the less glamorous happenings in that little place we call Crabapple, just west of downtown Alpharetta.
Crabapple Station - Crabapple Station is the Waterford Homes neighborhood behind Azio Pizza. They have two single family homes available in the low $500’s and one under contract. They also have five very nice townhomes for sale. There hasn’t been a townhome sold in Crabapple Station since February, which was for $375,000. Last week the existing five townhomes were all reduced $20,000 to $379k. The quality of these units is the best in Crabapple, in my humble opinion, plus they all have basements, some of them already finished.
Crabapple Crossroads - Crabapple Crossroads is the Williamscraft neighborhood with the seven three-story brownstones that you can’t miss. Well, congratulations, they sold two more brownstones: one for $359k in September and one for $369k in August. That leaves three to go, currently listed at $379k.
Crabapple Crossroads also has sold two single family homes since September, one for $450 and the other for $412. There are still 32 homes actively for sale in Crabapple Crossroads, and get this: They have ten under construction even with that much inventory already standing.
Crabapple Crossing - Crabapple Crossing is the neighborhood adjoining Crabapple Station behind Foster’s Grille. Crabapple Crossing is a Whitehall development, but Whitehall gave up the ghost during the summer and an investor stepped in and purchased the loan. Prices were reduced and all the townhomes have been sold except one, which is a 3-bedroom end unit, with all the appliances, listed at $315k but purchasable for $290k I know. It represents the best deal currently in Crabapple.
Old Place at Crabapple - Located at Mid-Broadwell and Charlotte, Old Place at Crabapple is a Harrison Builders development that remains dirt and an idea on paper. They have eight lots in an enclave. The interesting part is that they have reduced prices from the $800’s to the $700’s.
Braeburn - Here is some shocking news. Wieland has started (or should I say re-started) the construction of the Braeburn Office Village on Birmingham Highway across the street from Crabapple Crossing elementary school. There will ultimately be ten building and there are already two Under Contract signs posted, so that is positive for the area in terms of activity.
The residential portion of Braeburn - Wieland "Signature Homes" from the $700’s is still stilling undeveloped with no sign of movement.
Lodestone - The most noticeable work is that being done by Lodestone Development on the Crabapple Mercantile Exchange, the group of building along the north side of Crabapple Road in front of the brownstones. (Also the ones pictured above with our lovely Victoria Secret model ;->)
The Exchange is coming along very well and I think it looks great aestically with the brick and the dark stained trim. They have some new tenants signed up, too. In addition to Scoops, the ice cream parlor, and The Founders Club, a cigar merchant, Crabapple Dental (Dr. Roberts), an Irish Pub, Faire La Belle (which I can only assume is a lady’s clothing store) and Chateau de Nails, yes, yet another nail salon, will all take residence in the Exchange. From the looks of it, the French are going to have to battle the Irish for bragging rights at this point. My money is on the Irish. Plus, the building looks like it should have a saloon in it.
I hear that Scoops is going to try to open for the holiday season, at least they better because I understand that they have ordered a few thousand pounds of chocolate inventory. Now that is my kind of neighbor.
Natural Food Warehouse - The rumor was that Natural Food Warehouse was moving into the old Ingles location in Crabapple. This still may be the case, but they don’t appear to be in any hurry to move in if they are. Not one piece of on-site site modification has been made in the last couple of months. The Walgreens in the corner of the parking lot, however, has made significant progress and looks like it is near opening. Nothing like a cookie cutter store to get something built and opened.
Beragio - The active adult community of single story three-bedroom homes looks like it has come to a halt. The sign is even down. They were poring the sidewalks yesterday, but that is probably because the City of Alpharetta requires them. The Beragio website doesn’t have an updated "progress picture" since July 1.
That’s it for the Crabapple update. I have to get back to surfing for Victoria Secret models…that was a fun diverstion ;-> You have to find ways to keep things fun, right?
For information on any of these Crabapple communities or properties, please feel free to contact me . I don’t write this blog for fun - well, actually I do; it is my creative outlet - but I also write this blog to make a fair and honest living and provide value for you, my potential clients.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 2 Comments »
Foreclosure Sale Extended | Opportunity Remains in White Columns
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Buyers, Foreclosures, Milton Real Estate
MILTON - This house has nine lives. 
The foreclosure sale on this White Columns property did not happen this month. It has apparently been extended to the December sale on December 2nd. I never thought that this house would make it this far into the year; someone should get a nice Christmas gift.
Will someone please buy it so that I can stop blogging about it. I feel compelled to tell the story of this house to the very end, but the end won’t come. I may have to buy it myself.
The other White Columns foreclosure deal we’ve been tracking (red brick house shown at right) went under contract. It was reduced from $515,000 to $489,000 at the end of September and went under contract yesterday. Let’s see if it closes this time, as a previous contract fell through. This is an amazing amount of square footage for the dollar in Milton.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 1 Comment »
Buy a Million-dollar House for $50 | What a Stinking Good Idea
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Buyers, Milton Real Estate, Miscellaneous, Stuff I like to talk about
Annapolis and Milton - You can buy a million-dollar house for $50 in Annapolis. Now here is the catch: It’s a raffle. You buy a $50 raffle ticket and are entered into a drawing for the house (shown to the right with the porch). Ten percent of the proceeds also go to support a local charity.
When I see things like this I think: "Why didn’t I think of that?" What a creative way to sell a high-end property in a challenging market. While I might not always have the original idea, I’m not above replicating something that works. The people in Annapolis didn’t come up with the idea either. They got the idea from someone in western Maryland.
I’m marketing a couple of properties that would be good candidates for this - what am I thinking? All my listings would be good candidates for this if it gets them sold.
I have a couple of $700,000 properties in Milton that are rally fantastic: finished basements, one-acre lots, best schools and swim/tennis neighborhoods.
They are selling tickets in Annapolis for $50. I figure that is too cheap. Let’s say $100 gets you a crack at a $700,000 house in Milton / Alpharetta. That is only 7,000 tickets we need to sell. They are trying to sell 31,000 tickets in Maryland. I like our odds of winning better.
We could run the raffle totally above board just like the Georgia Lottery, American Idol or the Olympics…ok, maybe like the Georgia Lottery at least.
The trick is marketing and public relations of the event. That is where the folks in Annapolis have done a great job of using viral marketing and blogs like this.
What do you think? Would you pay $100 bucks for a chance to win the red brick, 5,500 sq. ft., 5 bedroom house in Milton shown above at 1:7000 odds? Would you rather spend $50 for 1:31,000 odds for the house in Annapolis? Or would you like what is in the box that Johnny is bringing down the isle now?
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 11 Comments »
$126,000 Foreclosure in Milton Requires Fast Action
categories: Alpharetta Real Estate, Buyers, Foreclosures, Milton Real Estate
MILTON - By the time I finish writing this post, this deal may be gone; it is that hot.
On Monday, a foreclosure in Providence Plantation in Milton came on the market at the unbelievable price of $126,000. What’s funny about that is that people think it is a typo. When I called the listing brokers, there was a recorded message that said: "Yes, the price is correct." Obviously they have been getting a lot of calls on it.
The grapevine reports that people have been lining up to get inside to see it and yesterday there were reportedly twelve people there at one time. Rumor has it that there may already be three offers, but non accepted yet.
I went out first thing this morning to take a look for myself. While I was there, another party showed up to look, too.
The house has four bedrooms, three baths, a two-car garage, a full basement and pool, albeit full of algae. The carpet has been taken up, but besides some cosmetic work on the inside, it was in pretty good shape. There were not holes in any walls, no water stains on ceilings and the cabinetry was in decent enough shape.
The exterior is front-side brick and the rest siding, which needs some work along with some rotten windows and trim. The roof is probably near the end of its life, too.
There is a full basement that was finished. One of the bedrooms and bathrooms is in the basement along with a living space. The master bedroom was on the main and two secondary bedrooms and one bath upstairs.
The lot, which is over an acre, is probably the biggest drawback of this property, as the house sits below street level and the lot slopes towards the back. However, it wasn’t too steep to prevent a previous owner from installing a swimming pool.
Providence Plantation is a mid-range neighborhood in the Crabapple Crossing Elementary School district with roughly 36 homes built about fifteen years ago. Past sales have been in the $400’s and the only other home currently on the market in Providence Plantation is listed (optimistically) at $499,900.
This foreclosure home sold for $300,000 in July, 2003.
The strategy of listing it at $126,000 has certainly grabbed the attention of investors for sure. The house will in all probability sell for more than list price, perhaps substantially more and I suspect the seller will sit on offers for at least a little while to generate competition among buyers. Wouldn’t you?
At what price is this property a steal for you, if you figure that it has approximately $50k of repairs needed? Don’t hold me to that repair figure, though; I’ll take you and show you so you can do your own repair estimate.
The biggest thing, however; when something like this comes along is the ability to recognize it and pull the trigger. The vultures are circling.
It has taken me about 45 minutes with interruptions to write this post…let me go and check to see if the property is still showing active in the MLS. Yep, still there, but it won’t be for long.
Posted by Kevin Warmath | Currently 7 Comments »
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