18Nov

Redistricting Affects Cogburn Woods, Summit Hill, Manning Oaks and Crabapple Crossing the Most

Birmingham Elementary School Redistricting ALPHARETTA - Not having attended the Round One redistricting meeting, I was floored by how many people attended last week’s Round Two meeting where three alternative redistricting maps were revealed. The gym at the Milton Center was packed with hundreds of people.

I was under the impression that redistricting for the new Birmingham Elementary school would impact only Summit Hill, Cogburn Woods and maybe marginally Crabapple Crossing and Manning Oaks, so I was surprised to learn that the ladies sitting next to me were from the Esther Jackson school district.

So, Yes, there are some "ripple effects" on all of North Fulton’s elementary attendance zones, but by and large the impact is isolated to Crabapple Crossing, Summit Hill, Cogburn Woods and Manning Oaks.

Birmingham Elementary School Redistricting

DOWNLOAD MAP OF THREE ALTERNATIVES

There was a ton of information delivered at the meeting and if you are just looking at the proposed new maps, it can take a little while to sink in.  These are the general findings…then we’ll get to the analysis:

  1. Schools East of GA-400 are not affected for all intents and purposes.  There are some very minor boundary changes for Northwood and Esther Jackson , but nothing major.
  2. Mountain Park ’s district is going to grow to take the southwestern part of Sweet Apple ’s district in all the alternative plans.  I assume this is because Mountain Park has the most projected classroom space so the school district can off load some of Sweet Apple ’s overflow.
  3. The same goes for Roswell North .  In Alternative C, Roswell North picks up the southern portion of Mimosa ’s current district.  Again, this appears to offset some capacity at Roswell North .
  4. I feel like we are playing a game of Risk and Hembree Springs and Mimosa are Switzerland and Austria.  Their futures could be wildly different than today, but their fates are tied to whatever happens to the districts further north.  More on that in the analysis section later.
  5. Crabapple Crossing :  This one is easy.  The district is getting smaller and the proposed new district is the same in all plans.  The southern boundary is staying the same as it is currently, and parts north are being parceled out to Birmingham Elementary and Summit Hill .  This appears to make sense.  Crabapple Crossing is projected to be one of the most overcrowed schools in 2012; it will still have an enrollment issue but it does get some relief.
  6. And now to the crux of the changes:  Birmingham Elementary will pick up about two-thirds of what is now Summit HillSummit Hill in turn picks up about half of Cogburn Woods ‘ current district.  And yes, it is like dominoes:  Cogburn Woods then picks up about 30-40% of Manning Oaks which then picks up some of Hembree Springs .  Basically take the existing attendance zones and turn them clockwise a couple of hours on the map.

Birmingham Elementary School Redistricting Proposed Plan C Now here comes the variability (and my analysis).  At the meeting the other night, one of the most interesting slides to me was the one showing the discretionary areas.  The school district does some very sophisticated modeling (I think they know more about our households than the IRS does) regarding where students are, what their needs are (special programs), future projections, etc.

This analysis is used to assign "study areas" to "service areas."  Some of the assignments are obvious, for instance, if you live directly across the street from a school.  Others are "gray areas" literally on the map:  they could logically be serviced by multiple schools.  Enter Alternative Plans A, B and C.  These are the school district’s solutions to the gray areas.

At the center of the redistricting debate is Cogburn Woods, Crooked Creek and The Manor.  I don’t think it is a secret that residents of Crooked Creek don’t like any of the alternatives.  In the words of a Crooked Creek resident, "All plans are not in keeping with the current character of the school."  Translation:  there are fewer single family residences and owner-occupied residences in the areas proposed to be redistricted to Cogburn Woods.

Enter The Manor.  If The Manor Golf and Country Club, which is in the far northeastern corner of Milton, is zoned to Birmingham Elementary then Triple Crown (near Providence Road and Birmingham Highway) will be zoned to Summit Hill instead of Birmingham.  This trade allows more of what is currently Cogburn Woods to stay part of Cogburn Woods.  That is, less area east of Highway 9 is included in Cogburn Woods in Alternative B.  This is the Plan that Crooked Creek residents would prefer.

The problem with The Manor for Triple Crown trade, though, is that Triple Crown in about a mile or two right down the road from Birmingham Elementary, where as The Manor is about five and a half miles from the school.  You have to go all the way across Birmingham Road to get there when a large portion of the other students for the new school will also be coming from the north.  It just makes more logistical sense to balance the northern traffic with Triple Crown to the south rather than force fit The Manor into Birmingham’s attendance zone.  Plus, The Manor is projected some day to have 400+ more homes, which would just mean that much more traffic across Birmingham Road.

One other nuance of the proposed alternatives involved the neighborhoods of Coventry, Gatewood, Hopewell Place and Southfield.  In Plan A, these neighborhoods would be redistricted to Manning Oaks even though they are right around the corner from Cogburn Woods and are west of Highway 9.  It probably makes more sense to keep those neighborhoods with Cogburn Woods from a practical matter that the kids can practically walk to Cogburn Woods.

Finally, looking at Hembree Woods and Mimosa, the impact on these schools seems to be somewhat the result of what happens to the north of them.  Manning Oaks is projected to be the second most over crowded school in 2012 if there were to be no redistricting.  How much relief Manning Oaks gets directly impacts Hembree Woods - and then trickles down to Mimosa.

Plans A and C give Hembree Springs the most relief; Plan B results in Hembree Springs being projected as the most over crowded school in 2012 and interestingly, Manning Oaks still the second most crowded in 2012.

Having combed over the different plans for a few days now, Plan C seems to be the most balanced plan across all the schools.  Triple Crown stays with Birmingham Elementary easing traffic and Manning Oaks and Hembree Springs both get equitable enrollment relief.  Coventry and the surrounding neighborhoods stay with Cogburn Woods; Crabapple Crossing is reduced in all plans and all other changes are marginal.  Crooked Creek and possibly residents of The Manor are likely to prefer Plan B, though, so it will be interesting to see how the politics and behind the scenes influencing shakes out.


The school district has stated some very specific decision criteria for making redistricting decisions.  We’ll see how they stick to them and how the justifications are made for the ultimately selected district map.  Residents are encouraged to submit comments following these criteria on the forum .  It’s a gray area though, and you know how those go.

Over 600 comments were received from the community after the First Round meeting and staff said that they reviewed and cataloged them all, including the neighborhoods they came from - and I believe them.  I encourage you to comment.  Staff does read they and they appear to be very thorough.  The online comments along with those gathered at the Round Two meeting will be used to select the final plan, which will be presented at the Round Three meeting on December 10. The final plan will then be sent to the School Board for a vote.

What has become clear to me in this process if even after Birmingham Elementary opens, we still have a 60 classroom deficit in the combined Roswell - Milton high school area.  That means that we really need one more elementary school if we actually want to have a physical classroom and not a trailer for all the students.  Geographically, the most under-served area is northeast Milton near The Manor (and Crooked Creek).  A school near these neighborhoods would iron out some of the wrinkles we are seeing in today’s district debate.

  1. Eric Ferris

    Thanks for the in-depth analysis of the re-zoning. I personally prefer Option A or C as they seem a bit cleaner and respect major thoroughfares. Option B puts Hembree Springs way over capacity such that I can’t even believe that option is on the table. Of the A or C, I would go with A as it keeps the Roswell clusters pretty clean compared to today’s boundaries.

    Here’s a link if folks want to download the datasheets for themselves: http://www.fultonschools.org/redistricting/BhamHwyES/Round2packet.pdf

  2. Kevin Warmath

    I’m going to submit the url of this blog post as a comment to the School Board. Think they will read it? ;->

    Wonder if they will take into consideration the results of the informal poll.

    k.

  3. Cyndee Haydon

    Kevin - we’ve been redoing our school zoning here and what a mess there’s still no guarantee that you’ll know which school your kids will attend when you buy a home - can you believe it! Our redistricting is causing us to have 7 years of grandfathering and lots of extra costs - Hope yours goes smoother!

  4. Maggie DeCan

    Kevin,

    I was forwarded your link by other Roswell North Parents. I appreciate your focus on the schools and recognition that good schools are the key to good neighborhoods, communities and values. I admire your courage, as someone who uses the internet to attract clients, for taking the risk of taking a side and stepping into the highly emotional world of redistricting.

    While your headline contends that only 4 schools are primarily “impacted”, I might argue that 4 other schools are far more NEGATIVELY impacted, such as Hembree Springs, Mimosa, Esther Jackson and Roswell North.

    Having attended every meeting and been involved on behalf of our school and 500 RNE families, I can say that we are 100% at odds with your interpretation of Plan C being best for all. We do not support anything near Plan C, nor could we support Plan A without modification. While we, like some Cogburn Woods parents, would rejoice at Plan B, we will not celebrate at the expense of the BOE doing what they need to satisfy Hembree Springs and our other sister Fulton County elementary schools.

    What might appear to some as tweaks or minor shifts on a map could actually represent higher density population areas shifting that take a school over capacity. Your perception of Roswell North’s excess capacity is based upon trailers that were committed to be gone in return for support of SPLOST last year. There was NO increase to cafeteria, playground, media center, parking lot, car pool, bus lane or gym space. We already begin ‘lunches’ at 10:25 am, with additional capacity as in A or C, we would begin at 9:40am. Finally, the BOE missed Roswell North’s projections by 49 students or 5% this year, we do not have confidence that we can take ANY additional geography.

    It is my understanding that a large number of parents at Cogburn Woods are also opposed to plan C and in favor of Plan B. It is my hope, on behalf of all the schools and parents that are struggling for a plan to support, that the BOE will come back with a plan in December that meets more of the needs for all of the schools involved.

    I am not trying to sway your position nor make RNE’s, instead just demonstrating the level of granualarity that needs to be considered when determining that any Plan is best for everyone.

    Again, I appreciate your interest in our schools and raising awareness of the process. I also appreciate the opportunity to respond via your own blog. Technology is a wonderful thing.

    My request of you and your blog, sir, would be that you continue to encourage parents to educate themselves and become involved in the process rather than advocating for a single plan. Or if you do advocate one plan, do so under the banner of one school or parent of a child in a school zone. Plan B is clearly best for Roswell North however, Fulton County needs to come up with a plan that is best far more students than anything presented to date.

    Thanks for your forum and time.

    Maggie DeCan
    Chair
    Roswell North Elementary Advocates

  5. Kevin Warmath

    Maggie: thank you SOOOO much for using the technology and entering your carefully considered thoughts.

    I must say that your comments are some of the most respectful that I’ve seen. You seem to truly aim at taking a holistic view of the impacts across the entire north fulton area - and that is a tough challenge because there do appear to be “winners” and “losers” in the redistricting or else people wouldn’t be so concerned about it.

    I can definitely see how Roswell North would be opposed to Plan C, which essentially means picking up the southern half of what is currently Mimosa’s district. And your point is well taken that measuring a school’s capacity is more than just counting classrooms, that parking, lunchroom availability, etc all count in the equation.

    My main point in all this really was not to advocate for one plan or another, although for the record, I reside in what will be the new Birmingham Elementary district and my youngest children will be redistricted there from Summit Hill, so personally I favor Plans A and C because I believe that Triple Crown should be part of the new school and bring more traffic in from the north (The Manor) is a negative. Plus keeping Triple Crown part of Birmingham ES will better align with middle school boundaries.

    However, my point in the main post is that political organization matters in these cases. Roswell North is clearly very organized as evidenced by your organization. Crooked Creek is very organized and politically active. The same can be said for many of the larger and established neighborhoods in the area.

    By definition, people organize based upon specific interest - they have to have a cause to organize around, which is very often socio-economic and almost always benefits them at the expense of another group.

    Organization is power and sometimes areas covered by schools like Hembree Springs or Mimosa or even areas covered by the new Birmingham Elementary are a lot less organized and politically active. For instance in the Bham ES area, there are a lot of very small neighborhoods in a large less densely populated area that aren’t very well organized as a whole.

    My hope is that the BOE will not be susceptible to the political waves but really do what is best for the area - and you are right, it is a VERY granular analysis. That is why we elected organizations to have a wider view and a broader perspective.

    At the end of the day, I’m sure there are going to be some unhappy residents, some cynical residents, some hopeful residents and some resigned residents. Like you said, i do hope that everyone at least educates themselves on this and doesn’t just believe what they read in the local papers or on the latest email blast being circulated by your neighbors.

    That is the real thrust of this blog: information, education and analysis (which you can take or leave).

    Again thanks for leaving the comment and i hope you’ll continue to read and share with your friends.

    k.

  6. Kevin Warmath

    PS: folks, look at the little buzzdash survey above. The other day there were 10 votes, evenly divided between Plan A and Plan C. Now there are 17 votes with about a third going to each plan.

    Also, the online forum for comments closed last friday, however the BOE is still taking comments…mail them to planning@fulton.k12.ga.us

    I received this email from BOE last friday:

    “Thank you for taking the time to provide input regarding the current Birmingham elementary school redistricting effort. We realize that not all members of the community could attend the November 13th community forum. We also realize that people who did attend may have additional insights to share. Therefore, staff will continue to receive comments via email, mail, and fax from the community through the end of November. Please note that the online forum will close on November 21st at noon. “

  7. Eric Ferris

    Kevin, so what do you think about the results of the 3rd meeting and the draft proposal that Fulton County has come up with? They clearly came back with a different plan than the 3 that were presented and from what I heard, the Cogburn Woods folks are pretty upset (those that were zoned out and those that are remaining). What is your analysis on this selection?

  8. Kevin Warmath

    Eric: I posted my review of the meeting late last night here: http://www.liveinalpharetta.com/blog/2008/11/18/redistricting-affects-cogburn-woods-summit-hill-manning-oaks-and-crabapple-crossing-the-most/

    You’re correct, the folks in Crooked Creek we the least happy. Many neighborhoods had changes made based on their input, but Crooked Creek did not. My theory is that Crooked Creek is just too big of a neighborhood to place them anywhere but Cogburn Woods. And in order to alleviate the overcrowding at Hembree Springs, a significant portion of what is now Manning Oaks district must be rezoned to Cogburn Woods - and that is what Crooked Creek is fighting against.

    See my latest post and let me know your thoughts. Thanks for reading.

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